Latest EPL Title Projections

GM football fans. It’s Monday, Dec. 23, and we’re covering Premier League title projections, La Liga’s turnaround and much more. First time reading? Sign up here.

Editor’s Note: We’ve reached the final edition of the year. We’ll see you on January 2! Have a lovely holiday season wherever you are reading this. Thank you for reading, responding, and sharing Route One. We are always looking to improve the newsletter and would love to hear what you have to say – simply reply to this email or use this 1-minute survey. - R1 team

RESULTS

Premier League MW17: Tottenham 3 - 6 Liverpool. Mohamed Salah is the first player ever to reach double-figure goals and assists in a Premier League season before Christmas – 15 goals, 11 assists. Everton 0 - 0 Chelsea. Everton put an end to Chelsea’s 15-match scoring run in the Premier League, taking them to four points behind Liverpool. Aston Villa 2 - 1 Man City. City are winless in five consecutive Premier League away games (D1 L4) for the first time under Pep Guardiola. Meanwhile, Jhon Duran has scored four goals in six Premier League starts for Villa. See full Premier League results here and upcoming fixtures here.

Plus…

• La Liga: Barcelona 1-2 Atletico | Real Madrid 4-2 Sevilla (Table)

• Bundesliga: Leverkusen 5-1 Freiburg | Wolfsburg 1-3 Dortmund (Table)

• Serie A: Genoa 1-2 Napoli | Lecce 1-2 Lazio | Atalanta 3-2 Empoli (Table)

• Scottish Premiership: Aberdeen 1-3 Hibernian | Rangers 1-0 Dundee | Ross Country 1-2 St. Mirren | Dundee Utd 0-0 Celtic | Hearts 2-1 St. Johnston (Table)

TOP TALKING POINTS

Liverpool Increase Title Chances

Liverpool’s chances of winning the Premier League title rises to 86.7%, according to Opta’s latest predictions. That’s up from 81.1% after their 6-3 win away at Tottenham. Arne Slot’s side sit four points clear at the top of the table with a game spare, ahead of Chelsea and Arsenal.

Even with a 5-1 win away at Crystal Palace, Arsenal’s likelihood of winning the league has fallen slightly – from 11.8% to 9.5%. Chelsea, despite dropping points to Everton, have increased their chances of winning the league. Enzo Maresca’s men are third favourites with a 3% chance. Manchester City have a 0.62% chance of winning the league – that’s down from 69.4% at the start of the season.

At the other end of the table, Southampton, Ipswich Town and Leicester City are the most likely to be relegated at the end of the season. Wolves, with a 53% chance of relegation, are the only other realistic relegation candidates, per Opta’s model.

Netflix’s Women’s Football Debut

Netflix secures the exclusive US rights to the FIFA Women’s World Cup for 2027 and 2031. It’s the first time the tournament will broadcast on a streaming service, opening the women’s game to a potential audience of 66.7 million subscribers in the US.

While 108 million people tuned in to see Jake Paul versus Mike Tyson’s boxing fight, 74 million watched the co-main event between Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano, making it the most-watched women’s sport in history. “Our record-breaking success with Amanda Serrano vs. Katie Taylor demonstrated the massive appetite for women’s sports and live programming,” says Netflix Chief Content Officer Bela Bajaria.

Alongside the World Cup broadcasts, Netflix will make exclusive documentaries about the women’s game. This includes spotlighting key players and documenting the explosion of the sport around the globe.

Atletico End Year Top

Atletico Madrid will end 2024 as the top team in Spain, three points above Barcelona, who have played a game more. It comes after Atletico’s 2-1 win away at Barcelona, with substitute Alexander Sorloth scoring an injury-time winner. Atletico's winning run has extended to 12 games in all competitions.

Barcelona had been nine points clear at the top at one stage this season. But one win in seven matches has closed the gap. Hansi Flick’s side have lost each of their last three home games in the league, their worst run in the competition since 1987.

Real Madrid’s 4-2 win over Sevilla takes them ahead of Barcelona with an extra match to play. Los Blancos sit one point behind Atletico going into the new year. Kylian Mbappe scored the sixth goal in his last eight games with Madrid.

POLL

ON THE BALL

Europe

> Pep Guardiola says Man City will know their fate on the 115 charges by February or March 2025 (More) | George Eastham, a member of England’s World Cup-winning squad, has died at the age of 88 (More) | Sheffield United remain top of the Championship table after 2-0 win over Cardiff City (More) 

> Jesus Navas played the last La Liga game of his 21-year career against Real Madrid (More) | See Navas’ farewell (More) | Ajax and Como have announced a cross-league partnership on a three-year agreement; mutual growth and exchange of expertise (More)

> Atalanta go top of the Serie A table after a late winner in their 3-2 victory over Empoli (Highlights)

Americas

> Four River Plate women's players were arrested by Sao Paulo police and accused of making a racial slur (More)

> San Diego FC select Manu Duah, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 MLS SuperDraft (More) | Atalanta United have appointed Ronny Deila as their new head coach, the former New York City FC boss (More) | CBS grade NWSL managers in 2024 (More) 

> The National Independent Soccer Association (NISA), a third-division professional football league, will not be sanctioned by the US Soccer Federation in 2025 (More)

Rest of the World

> Global players’ union raises concerns about overload and underload in women’s soccer (More)

> The Western Sydney Wanderers have broken into A-League Men’s top-six after making it three games unbeaten (More) | Former Hong Kong manager Gary White is open to taking the job again in the future (More)

ROUTERS’ VOICE

On Friday, we asked you: Do you agree with Ange Postecoglou’s claim that managing a football team is harder than leading a nation?

🟨 🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ 🥵 Yes... (26%)

🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 😂 Nope... (71%)

⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ✍️ Other... (3%)

Your punditry takes:

• 🥵 J.C: “Leading a nation you only have the government to worry about whereas in a club you have the players and the millions of fans.”

• 😂 D.W: “Anyone leading the nation is responsible for the population’s welfare and wellbeing. A football manager only has to preen to about 25 (75 if they signed to Chelsea) adults that are overpaid, drama queens.”

• ✍️ P.O: “Both largely thankless tasks where you can't please everyone.”

EXTRA TIME

Editor’s Note: Here are the most popular Extra Time stories of the year. Enjoy!

(04/Mar) Every Premier League manager’s wages last year.

(24/Jun) Ex-Liverpool defender sues former team-mate after bragging on a podcast about “trying to hurt” him in training.

(01/Jul) Roy Keane’s savage response to Jill Scott. (via X)

(30/Jul) A league table of every English club’s points since inception in 1888.

(20/Aug) Red card given in Peru as a player ‘relaxes’ during an injury break.

(05/Sep) Norwegian drug testers ask for Haaland and a striker who died in 1962.

(12/Sep) Why Trent Alexander-Arnold ended his relationship with model Iris Law.

(21/Nov) How iconic clubs got their kit colours.

(12/Dec) The forgotten story of the world’s first football club.

(13/Dec) Why only Chelsea can wear white socks at Stamford Bridge.

GAME FACE ON

Question: Can you name the player who has scored the most goals in Europe this calendar year? (Only top 10 leagues included)

Bonus: How many goals has he scored?

Scroll below for the answer.

ON TODAY

EFL League One

• Crawley vs Birmingham (20:00)

Serie A

• Fiorentina vs Udinese (17:30)

• Inter Milan vs Como (19:45)

Primeira Liga

• Benfica vs Estoril (18:45)

• Vitoria SC vs Nacional (18:45)

• Estrela vs Rio Ave (20:45)

*All time in UK. ET -5. CST -6. PST -8. MST -7. CET +1.

Answer

Viktor Gyokeres. 36 goals.

See the full list of top scorers this year here.