Gm football fans. Route One here.

Today’s briefing is a ~3 min read:

• The man behind Liverpool’s magic 🪄

• Fantasy Premier League: The best way to choose a defender? 🤔

• Extra-time: the time that Odergaard trained with his “dream” Premier League club 🤐

Psst.. if you’re loving Route One, share this link or forward today’s email to a friend, colleague, ex-lover, postman, cat, acquaintance… heck, anyone who loves the game as much as you do. It’s the only way we grow. : )

🗞️ Morning Brief

Black Red Magic 🪄

Michael Edwards is a wizard. A magical character who worked in the shadows at Liverpool as Sporting Director.

In case you didn’t know, a sporting director is in charge of transfers. They also oversee all sporting activities.

Just a quick refresher…

• Edwards used a crystal ball for revolutionary signings at Liverpool - including Salah, Robertson, and van Dijk.

• Following his departure from Liverpool in Oct 2022, Liverpool needed a new wizard to predict the future and help rebuild their squad.

• Edwards was replaced by his understudy, Julian Ward. But he left to take a career break.

• Ward wasn’t a wizard. But a decent bloke, apparently.

But then…

* poof * 🪄 …in comes Jorg Schmadtke. 

Liverpool’s new sporting director.

Schmadtke has worked for teams in Germany. This makes him more of a connected gangster than it does a dark arts magician.

Both work, I guess.

He has signed a one-season deal.

Deals for Szoboszlai, Endo, and Gravenberch meant Schmadtke's first window was impressive. He is now regularly seen in the director’s box at Anfield.

But, the rest of the season won’t be easy.

Joel Matip is entering his last season, key players are maturing beyond their prime, and Salah is being targeted by Saudi.

Who will become Liverpool’s next sorcerer? Pulling out well-priced talent from foreign league hats is the trick Liverpool’s board demands.

Will it be Schmadtke? Well, January’s window will be telling.

Watch this space, Rooters.

FPL: How To Choose Defenders… 🚫

Ok, we’re about to get technical. Strap in and hold tight. 🤓

How should you make decisions on which defenders to include in your FPL squad?

We’re about to blow your mind… hopefully.

We’ve run the numbers and here’s the short answer: defensive stats > attacking stats when choosing a defender.

Clean sheets are more important than goals and assists.

Odd, right?

You’re always told that you should look for defenders who are going to achieve attacking returns. But, the data says otherwise.

Don’t believe us? Here’s the stats…

Let’s dive into the 20/21 season…

This graph shows each defender’s Total Points against G+As and Clean Sheets.

What do we see? A clear correlation between Clean Sheets and Total Points. And weaker link exists between G+As and Total Points.

But, here’s the technical part. When looking at the R-squared (which, put simply, shows us how much G+A or Clean Sheets explains Total Points) it’s even more compelling.

For the 20/21 season, the R-squared is:

• Clean Sheets + Total Points = 0.92. This means that CS can explain 92% of a defender’s total points for that season - that’s very high!

• G+A + Total Points = 0.63. This means only 63% can be explained by attacking returns.

You didn’t think we just analysed one season, did you?

The same trend goes for every season, including the current one…

Take a look. Here’s 21/22…

R-squared =

• Clean Sheets + Total Points = 0.93

• G+A + Total Points = 0.66

Don’t get us started on 22/23…

R-squared =

• Clean Sheets + Total Points = 0.93

• G+A + Total Points = 0.53

Oh, and guess what, the current season too…

Ok, ok, enough graphs…

TL/DR…

• Defensive stats > attacking stats when picking a defender.

• Clean sheets are more important for defenders than attacking returns.

• First, analyse defender options by looking at xGC, big chances conceded and opposition touches in the penalty box. Then filter again for attacking potential.

• Players like Trippier are ideal. This is because Newcastle have great underlying defensive stats first. Then Trippier has great attacking potential.

EXTRA-TIME ⏱️

Honesty is the best policy when it comes to management. Non-league boss Marc White has gone viral after assessing his “f**king s**t” players lost in the FA Cup fourth qualifying round - his words, not ours!

TAA finding out he will become Liverpool’s vice-captain. It’s a lovely moment between the player and the manager. I’m not crying, you are. We don’t do emotion here at R1, but this caught us off guard.

Odegaard once trained with “dream club” Liverpool. Before making his move to Real Madrid, the 15-year-old trained with Liverpool for 3 days. Liverpool tried to woo the wonder kid to his “dream club”. They did this by allowing him to train amongst the likes of Gerrard and Coutinho at Melwood.

Türkiye celebrates Euro qualification with a team dance. Lots of beards and screaming but it’s a feel-good scene… something we all need a lot of on a Tuesday.

😆 MEME